In an optically thick medium where resonance photons are repeatedly absorbed and re-emitted, individual photon escape probabilities are the wrong question.
The right question is eigenmode lifetime: the slowest decay mode of the photon population in the geometry, which sets how long inverted population can sit before bleeding away.
Holstein's 1947 ansatz expands the source function as a sum of eigenmodes of the integral equation
$$\partial_t n(\vec{r},t) = -\Gamma n + \Gamma \int K(\vec{r}, \vec{r}') n(\vec{r}',t)\, d^3 r'$$
with $K$ the kernel encoding spectrally-averaged escape from $\vec{r}'$ to $\vec{r}$. The fundamental eigenmode has effective decay rate $g_0(k_0 L)\,\Gamma$ where $g_0$ is the Holstein escape factor, depending on optical depth $k_0 L$ and line shape (Doppler / Voigt / Lorentzian).
Limits, from plasma-solvers::holstein_g0: - Doppler, slab, $k_0 L \sim 10^3$: $g_0 \sim (k_0 L \sqrt{\pi \ln k_0 L})^{-1}$ - Voigt, $a$-dependent: power-law in $a^{1/2}$
The whole framework presumes incoherent re-emission. Once pmg-nlambda3 holds, the eigenmode expansion breaks — the medium is denser than the mode density. See pmg-dicke.